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Syrian between economical escalation and war de-escalation

Syrian  between economical escalation and war de-escalation
August 06
20:12 2017

The de-escalation of fighting is proving to be working as the de-escalation zones are expanding and the Syrian central government is gaining momentum over Syria. The armed opposition is  fading away, the political opposition is so divided and has no power on the ground,  ISIS is being defeated by the Syrian Military or by the US backed forces. The de-escalation seems to be working very well.

However, the economy started its escalation, The Syrian destroyed economy will try to make a recovery, the challenges the Syrian government and business sector are substantial and today Syria need wise men to steer the economy into a proper development otherwise Syria may face a new revolution.

The rich are richer the poor are poorer

Escaping the military service is one of the biggest drain of the Syrian economy 

This is the main trend in Syria for the young men, who recently reached the time to do military service,  so either they have the money to avoid military service either by finding some gaps in the system to pay a lump sum to be exempted in the form of bribe  or they travel, where the poor joins the military services and face victory or death, as many as few hundred thousand young Syrian soldiers faced death the rich boys were able to find a way from their pockets. It is clear in Syria that the work force market lacks of male workers or professionals.

Syrians spend around 1.5 Billion USD to avoid military.

Night clubs are full of those young men, clubbing with multi girl friends spending in one night the earning of a solider in a year time.

Roof top bar Damascus

Roof top bar Damascus

Business is dedicated to certain group of businessmen, those are way above the law, above the tradition and above every one, taking advantage of the current situation as major business is controlled by certain group of businessmen such as construction, media, telecommunications, tobacco, alcohol, steel, cars, new names are emerging, new business community has emerged with blood money to invest and launder.

“ We saved Syria, we saved the regime,  time for reward “ according to a  high level Syrian businessman  

The economy 

At a first glance when your visit Damascus, you would think that the war in Syria has ended, hundreds of night clubs, restaurant, bars and hotels are full, some places you spend a month income of a government employee, Damascus International fair is reopening after being suspended for few years, the Syrian government issued a new bank note of 2000 Syrian Pound showing the picture of President Bashar Al Assad as a sign of strength, victory and triumph.

In order to maintain the exchange rate against the dollar at 540 has cut down on development and imports, so no more imports, no More Banking loans for the industry or commerce, which makes business development complicated, the Syrian government is counting on Syrian and international inventors to pump money into the economy.

Clearly between the Syrian Central bank, the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of finance and justice department Syria will soon become a “ Jungle of a failed economy”. The corruption will soon start eating the country if there will be no economical reform and clear vision to rebuilt and construct Syria.

The Syrian economy will be facing substantial challenges, as natural resources still limited due the USA backed Kurdish fighter PYD ( Syrian Democratic Army ) dominating the major oil resources, The GAS is controlled by Russians , the Syrian economy will lack of funds to grow, in addition to the ]international sanctions, the full stability of the country which is not completed yet, this will not encourage investors to come and start larger projects .

The Local money and small business will allow the Syrian economy to push forward on a very limited and narrow scale, however the challenge in Syria requires wisdom and good decision making, based on knowledge and market understanding.

It is in the hand of the Syrians to find solution for the economical growth, it is not the allied of Syria who would help the economy to grow, Russia  is waiting to get its reward from the gas, Iran is also waiting for some gains, China will not inject any investment until the security situation improves, so the Syrian government friends have done their part  waiting SYRIANS to figure out a solution.

Syrian government has to act wisely in facing these challenges along side with the business community, would they be able to do that ?

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