::: Levant Research Institute :::

THE JORDAN-SYRIA ROAD AND THE HARD CHOICES

February 09
21:20 2015

In 2004 King Abdula the second in his interview with “WASHINGTON POST” Spoke about the “Shi’ite -crescent”,  where Tony Blair the ex -prime minister of Great Britain Spoke of the “ Suni – Arch “ in between those regional signals “ Terminologies”  and the Iraqi war, a new terminology were created in he Levant, in addition to  the Palestinian  “ Peace process” and  the 2006 war in Lebanon between Hezbulla and Israel.

( It is a common knowledge that Shi’ite are supported by Iran, where Suni’s represent the influence of the Saudis and the Turks, where both competes on who should run the SUNI Islam, Saudi the Wahabiest or Turkey the Ottoman).

Jordan and The Murder of its Pilot:

A new Scenario is created after the brutal murder of the Jordanian pilot (Kasasbeh) as a result of  the brutality of the ISIS ( Islamic State of Iraq and Syria), which also introduced a wave of changes in the Eastern Mediterranean basin adding to that the increased Iranian influence over Iraq, Syria and Lebanon so the “Shi’ite crescent” as called by King Abdualla fueled his concerns from loyal regional governments to Iran.

According to a Study made by Philips Smyth, for the “Washington Institute of near East policy”:

“ Smyth explain : Iran has used the Syrian civil war to expand its influence over the Shi'ite communities in the broader Middle East and advance the clerical regime's strategic and ideological goals. Iran's support for the regime of Syrian Bashar Al Assad is well-documented.”

 

Jordan faces hard choices in its revenge for the murder of its pilot.  

This war against ISIS is putting Jordan is a difficult choice as King Abdualla has fears from the spread of Iranian influence in addition to ISIS threat, however the revenge is not new.  Jordan is participating with the allied forces in its war against ISIS before the murder, the real challenge would be the “South of Syria”

Therefore, at the end there are two options:

  1. A direct confrontation with Syria by supporting the southern front of the rebels, where we see a direct mutual interests shared between Jordan and Israel.

This possible conflict is becoming apparent after the murder of the pilot as Jordan does not need only air passages but it also requires supporting loyal Islamist groups to enhance the fighting capabilities against ISIS, this will support the Salafiest front in Jordan which has different philosophy and doctoring to ISIS,where Jordan has fear of a possible future joined efforts between Jordanian Islamits and ISIS, that reflect the Balir terminology “ SUNI ARCH”.. this dual missions of fighting ISIS and directing a Salafiest groups towards the southern front of Syria replaces the Turkish influence in this struggle.

2- The other option is entering into a smaller version of a regional war, restricting the front of the fight into HORAN and the Ghollan region, as we may see a direct possible Jordanian and Israeli influenced fighting.

 

The Gathering Storm:

The video which was shown on TV’s of the brutal murder of “Kasasbeh”is only to put Jordan in a direct confrontation with ISIS.

Jordan is establishing a public relation campaign in its war against ISIS, with the support of USA and a direct support of the UAE air force, so we can call it the “ Gathering Storm “ as Jordan will seek to prepare the entire Southern front of Syria, to convert the war to become a regional one.

 

The Jordanian calculations:

We may describe that any Jordanianinterference in Syria would be a “Smooth “ one hence the Jordanian forces would be part of a later operation leading to some called it “ Separation forces” which were used in different parts of the world which may lead to a buffer zone.

Hence, the US does not believe that there is a necessity to establish such buffer in the north of Syria but that is not true for the south.

Today Jordan has a legitimate reason to interfere directly in the Syrian war, using the murder of its pilot as an excuse, and the necessity of that interference is becoming important and urgent factor to block any ISIS expansion near the Jordanian boarder with Syria.

But we still see that Jordan will not have boots on the ground as we may believe, however it will remain carrying on its air strikes, supporting the fighting groups in the South of Syria, and encouraging a Salafiest groups to emphasis the ability of these fighting groups creating buffer to protect Jordan and Israel.

All events indicates that Jordan is trying to Isolate “ Derra “ in order for the Jordanian armed forces to be able in the future to discipline the situation in South of Syria.

Jordan is currently building loyalties in the region “ South of Syria”, as armed groups controlling that part of Syria find Jordan a reliable partner and supporter. This option will add an additional security measure to Israel which is watching very closely the development in Syria and trying to block any attempt from the Syrian government or its allies ( Iran and Hezbulla) to have any presence or influence in this part of Syria. ( in January 2015 Israel made an Air Strike targeting an IRGC and Hezbulla top ranking officers visiting the southern front in Qunaitera).

Ghollan and Horan became a united front and Israel is becoming part of the internal disputes within this region.

Refrences: Read more: http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-most-important-thing-in-the-middle-east-that-no-one-is-talking-about-2015-2#ixzz3RFS4JuMP

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